Method2026-03-21#verification

Use confidence buckets, not fake precision

Precise confidence numbers look scientific and often are not. Unless they are tied to a calibrated model or measured historical error, they are mostly theater.

Buckets work better in operator workflows because they can map to action: high can publish, medium can request a receipt, low can escalate, unknown can abstain.

The bucket should cite the reason: direct source found, conflicting source found, no source found, or model-only inference. That reason matters more than the label.

Aha moment

Confidence is useful when it changes what happens next, not when it looks mathematically precise.

Try this

Use high, medium, low, and unknown buckets tied to evidence type, conflict level, and review action.

Watch for

  • Percentages that are not calibrated against historical outcomes
  • Confidence labels without evidence reasons
  • High confidence on claims with no direct receipt